Industry Trends

The 2026 Gamma and Cobalt Outlook

New U.S. Cobalt Production

In January 2026, Westinghouse Electric Company, Nordion, and PSEG announced progress toward producing Cobalt-60. The isotope would be generated at PSEG’s Salem units in New Jersey and supplied to Nordion for medical and industrial applications, including sterilization. We congratulate Nordion and Westinghouse for achieving this milestone!

This announcement is a positive signal for the long-term resilience of the Cobalt-60 supply chain, and for the 40% of companies relying on Gamma for irradiation needs. As we’ve written before, there is a lot to like about Gamma in terms of its photon-based penetration performance and the (relative) simplicity of many Gamma validations. The knock with Gamma has always been that the Co-60 market has been its challenging supply-side dynamics.

These reasons create a market that can be perilous for buyers. While this Westinghouse-Nordion announcement is positive for the industry, it does not materially change the nature of the market as the timeline for the Westinghouse PWR Cobalt-60 production cycle takes approximately 4.5 years before the material reaches commercial activity levels and can be processed into usable sterilization sources. This is approximately double the production time that traditional Co-60 production sources have required.

Because this is a slower path than legacy Co-60 production, it does not fix the underlying problem: the supply chain for Co-60 becomes even more brittle when the supplier must predict market needs for an expensive asset that decays immediately upon delivery nearly 5y in advance.

What Does This Mean for Gamma?

Co-60 contracts have historically experienced meaningful increases following supply disruptions or long-term contract renegotiations during constrained periods. This reflects the capital intensity of reactor operations and the physics of radioactive decay.

Gamma’s supply chain operates under structural constraints that differ from other industrial inputs:

  • It is a wasting asset: Cobalt-60 has a half-life of approximately 5.27 years, so there is no ability to “stock” Co-60.
  • New supply must be planned at least 2 years in advance with traditional generation sources (and, with PWR-supplied Co-60… at least 4.5yr in advance).
  • Reactor outages, regulatory delays, and geopolitical disruptions ripple through the system when they occur.
 

Global commercial Cobalt-60 production remains concentrated among a small number of reactor operators and processors. Nordion is a leading commercial supplier, Russian state-backed production represents another share, and a limited number of additional reactors contribute smaller volumes. Entry barriers are high, regulatory requirements are significant, and production timelines are long – normal market forces don’t apply in this virtually monopolistic situation.

Real-World Examples

In 2009, the extended shutdown of Canada’s NRU reactor at Chalk River removed a major source of medical isotopes from the market and exposed global concentration risk. In 2018, the permanent closure of Ontario’s Bruce Power reactor Unit 2 temporarily reduced isotope output. More recently, geopolitical tensions involving Russian state nuclear entities have increased scrutiny around Rosatom-linked supply chains, which represent a significant portion of global Cobalt-60 production. 

Will we see another Gamma supply crunch? The question is not if we will – it’s when we will.

What This Means for Other Sterilization Modalities

We do not see either Ethylene Oxide (EO) or Gamma disappearing from the market anytime soon. EO will continue to serve applications that require low-temperature processing and compatibility with sensitive materials. Gamma will continue to serve high-volume, high-penetration applications.

At the same time, X-ray capacity has expanded in recent years in North America and Europe, offering gamma-equivalent penetration without reliance on radioactive sources. Electron Beam continues to gain adoption for radiation-compatible products that benefit from rapid processing and, in many cases, superior economics. We expect the majority of market growth to be addressed increasingly by these accelerator-based modalities.

While some larger MedTech manufacturers may not be looking to completely replace Gamma, they are evaluating optionality. If a product is already radiation-compatible, it is virtually certain that it can be validated in either X-ray or E-Beam (often with better material compatibility performance).

Strategic Considerations

Modality flexibility reduces exposure to long-cycle isotope planning, pricing volatility, and regional concentration risk. It also creates leverage in procurement conversations and strengthens long-term capacity planning.

For organizations evaluating diversification pathways check out our: 

Planning for Resilience

Domestic Cobalt-60 production in U.S. reactors is a meaningful milestone for the sterilization ecosystem. It adds volume to a concentrated supply chain and supports long-term infrastructure stability – this is a positive move for Gamma users. At the same time, the fundamental brittleness of the Co-60 isotope supply chain is unchanged: this is a monopoly supplying a decaying asset, and for that reason, not being able to forecast demand accurately over multiple (up to nearly 5 years with new PWR Co-60) will lead to market shocks. And these shocks will not be fun for customers to experience.

The healthcare system does not benefit from overreliance on any single sterilization pathway. Stability comes from a balanced portfolio of modalities that can absorb growth, disruption, and regional constraints without interrupting patient care.

Book a call with our team to evaluate your current sterilization strategy, assess radiation compatibility, and explore whether building optionality into your supply chain makes sense for your portfolio.

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